Hello,

I recently wondered if there is a situation where you would call a raise when you are UTG (say on a full 6-max). I am calculating pot-odds by estimating the final potsize at the end of the preflop. Hereby I estimate the number of players present at that time, the propability of re-raises and some more... So it´s classical EV upon reversed implied odds.

Cutting it short, to make that call profitable I would need an EV against the remaining 3 players of 85%... something not even pocket Aces kan provide.

Sure I raise at times to make me less exploitable - yet that´s the only reason so far.

I did not get that. What means (how do you define) "to make that call profitable"?

Just rephrasing:
I'm UTG, at 6 handed table, I open raise to 3-4BB and got 3 bet to 10-13 BB? And you want to calculate what hands you want to call?
Or you limp from UTG on 6 handed table, and get raised?

Well 2nd part is easy - you don't limp on 6 handed tables - if you do - you play bad.
1st part is it depends you should look at 3 betting range of an opponent ant try to think about what strategy can you imply postflop. If he is a tight player and 3 bets about 3% of his hands if you have a pocket pair you can go towards set mining. If he has more than 8% of 3 bet - you should run equity calculations against his range, look how many times you hit flop with given your hand and will it be better on avarage vs his holdings (or you flop a good draw and his range is so wide - you can win the pot by check-raise). So both ways you need to work on implied odds, only 2nd is more complex and needs good opponent modeling / hand range aprox.

I now got your question, but I wonder about this quoted. If you computed that reraising with pocket Aces is not EV+, then there is certainly something trashy in your calculations?

Let's take the following scenario (the one where you're the most likely to call IMHO):

- you bet 4BB UTG
- 10BB raise and 2x 10BB calls followed you

Now the pot is 34BB and you need 6BB to see the flop.

Say you have AA, and they have KK QQ JJ (which is somewhat consistent with your bet and their raises, I'm not sure it's the most pessimistic scenario though, as I don't have my MC simulator here with me).

Basically you don't want the flop to have a K Q or J (unless you flop an A as well).

Now let's take the very conservative assumption that whoever flops a set will fold everyone else, and if no set is flopped you'd bet your AA and fold every one.

As said before, you only need to emerge as the top hand after the flop 15% of the time to break even:

-6*0.85+34*0.15=0

Again, I don't know the exact odds of them flopping a set without you flopping one. But I'm relatively confident they're below 85%. So here I'd call.




I know I took a lot of assumptions, including putting your opponents on specific hands.

But you get the idea.

Hi skyd1v3r - maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where you said if you are talking about Limit or NL. From previous discussions I'll assume you're refering to Limit as the answers are different for NL.

A good human player doesn't try to find a general solution - they use a couple of rules of thumb.

Firstly you look at Villian's UTG raise stat (ther are position raising stats in the PT repository if you don't know how to make them yourself) and then you compare the value of your hand to their range.

But then, you almost never call (only some very rare exceptions to this), you only play if you can 3 bet. There are two main reasons for this:
1. you want to play heads up and have the blind money as overlay
2. you only want to play when your pot equity is good AND your hand is 'playable' post flop

The second point is very important.

Sure, against some players you have have sufficient equity with a hand like 22 or JTs but how are you going to play these hands profitably post flop?

One of the keys to sucessful poker playing by humans, and the approach that I take with botting, is to avoid situations that appear to be marginally profitable if they are likely to result in you being put do difficult situations later in the hand (this concept is even more important in NL games).

So the short answer is, almost never call - raise or fold.

Generally, there could be plenty of situations where you would call a 3-bet after you open raised from UTG. But I don't think your hypothetical situation is one of them.

I'm struggling with why you would need 85% equity to call (EV is typically expressed in terms of bb, so I'll call it equity, or pot equity). Based on your assumed hands, you've got 55% equity with AA in a 4 way pot. You're immediate EV to call is +16bb = (34bb * 55%) - (6 * 45%). (Personally, I think your assumed hand range is a little tight, I think you need to at least throw in AKs for a couple of them, and maybe even AKo or AQs for one) Your equity is probably closer to 58%-60%. Folding would be atrocious.

From "your 85% equity to call comment", I'm assuming that your evaluation of the post flop play has you losing approximately 28bb post flop (reverse implied odds; because that is what your immediate odds would be with 85% equity and the specified pot size, +28bb.). I struggle to fathom that happening. The post flop play simulation needs to be pretty poor (saying it nicely) to achieve this.

To be honest, with this type of pot equity, calling is a pretty poor decision in a multi-way pot too (because of the reverse implied odds). It is unlikely that you're is going to get better post flop. So, it is better to get as much in preflop as you can. You need to raise. (if it was down to a two way pot, you might want to consider smooth calling and trying to milk it post flop).

If you are concerned about poor post flop play and loosing money to reverse implied odds, you should seriously consider going all in. You reduce the hand to a preflop game and you lock in your equity/EV. You scoop 34bb if everyone folds, or you get a call or two and get the money in while you have them all over a barrel.

According to BalugaWhale, one of the top coaches at deucescracked.com, you should never call a 3-bet OOP on a HU pot.
(at least on small stakes).
No matter if you are UTG, MP or CO.

So, the standart reaction would be fold or 4bet.

Considering that you are on the UTG and your opening range should be stronger, a 3bet looks even stronger.
Since its SSNL I will try to play for value most of the times, hence I´ll be folding alot on this spot. (pending history, ofc)

Good advice from hawkpkr - you'd better to choose 3bet. Good luck!